Corn, Wheat, Soybean Complex Market Commentary for 07-20-10
Corn Market Review for 7/20/2010
September Corn ended down 7 1/2 at 374, 6 1/4 off the high and 3/4 up from the low. December Corn settled down 6 1/2 at 387 1/2. This was 1 1/4 up from the low and 5 1/2 off the high.
December corn traded lower overnight and then added to its losses to begin the day session. The market then trimmed its losses during the middle of the day session before returning to near the early lows prior to the close. Traders said that warm and wet weather in the Midwest is again boosting yield expectations . Forecasts last week had called for a dome of hot and dry air over the Midwest this week, which caused some analysts to cut their yield forecasts. Instead, ample rains have fallen over the past week in most areas with today's showers helping to complete the coverage. Improved monsoon rains in India in recent days have also boosted soil moisture in areas that will be planted to corn and the Agriculture Minister said today that this should boost planting progress and the overall crop outlook.
September Rice finished 0.115 lower at 9.88 , equal to the low and equal to the high.
Wheat Market Commentary Report for 7/20/2010
September Wheat finished down 5 1/4 at 577, 4 off the high and 4 1/4 up from the low. December Wheat settled down 4 1/2 at 607. This was 4 1/2 up from the low and 3 1/4 off the high.
The wheat market fell again today with the December contract losing ground to the deferred July 2011 contract in the process. Traders said that improved weather in the Midwest was causing spillover selling from corn again today, along with light pressure from a lower dollar. Otherwise, news was light today. Egypt's buying agency - CASC - announced today that it bought 120,000 tonnes of wheat, all of it from Russia. One analyst noted that Russia still appears to have a lock on the Egyptian market despite recent weather related production losses in the Black Sea region. The US did manage to get a piece of the large wheat sale to Iraq that was announced yesterday.
December Oats ended down 4 1/2 at 263 1/2. This was 4 3/4 off the high and 1 up from the low.
Soybean Complex Market Review for 7/20/2010
August Soybeans closed up 3 3/4 at 1011 3/4, 2 1/2 off the high and 13 1/4 up from the low. November Soybeans finished up 1 at 973. This was 10 1/4 up from the low and 3 1/4 off the high.
August Soymeal closed down 3.5 at 301.5. This was 1.5 up from the low and 3.5 off the high.
August Soybean Oil finished 0.44 higher at 38.4, 0.62 up from the low and 0.08 off the high.
November soybeans sold off late in the overnight session and into the day session but recovered to marginally higher levels over the remainder of the day. The nearby August contract gained on November on the day and soy oil posted a sharp gain over meal. Meal traded moderately lower on the day while oil traded moderately higher. Traders said that warm and wet weather over the weekend and through the remainder of this week is causing the same sort of greenhouse effect that was so beneficial to crops last year, except that this year's greenhouse is warm instead of cool. Officials in India report that improved monsoon rains with good distribution are improving planting conditions for crops including soybeans. The latest round of rains have reduced the overall monsoon deficit to 15% below normal for the year to date versus a 16% deficit as of last week.
With today's review talking mostly about weather, traders might want to take a peek at the commercial traders momentum. The Commercial Trader momentum can be tracked by using the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitment of Traders reports. Our idea is that, in a value driven commodity futures market no one knows fair value like the people who produce it or, have to use it. In fact, it is precisely their sense of value that provides the commodity market's rhythmic meanderings that swing traders love so much. Let's face it, producers know when their product is overvalue and it should be sold just as well as end line users know when they should be stocking up at low prices. Therefore, trader should be able to incorporate this valuable information into their future market education.
The daily commentaries provide an analysis of the factors that influenced price activity, a recap of any reports released that day, a recap of each commodity's traded price activity, and a look ahead at the next day's schedule. CME Group provides market commentaries for wheat, soybeans, corn, gold and silver. The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
Andy Waldock publishes this blog. Andy Waldock is a financial advisor, trader, analyst, broker and asset managerfor Commodity & Derivative Advisors, located in Sandusky, Ohio. For that reason, Andy Waldock may have positions for himself, his clients, or his family in any commodity future market reviewed. The blog is meant to develop a dialogue and educate those with an interest in the commodity future markets. The commodity markets employ a high degree of leverage and commodity trading may not be appropriate for all investors. Investing in the commodity futures could result in considerable risk. If you are interested in reading other published articles, commenting on his writings or subscribing to Andy's blog, please visit http://blog.commodityandderivativeadv.com, or if you have any questions, please call 1-866-990-0777.